You are Rachel Reeves. It is November 2025. The OBR has handed you a deteriorating forecast — sluggish growth, £150bn borrowing, debt approaching £3 trillion. You must close the fiscal gap, meet your own rules, and avoid breaking your manifesto pledges. Move the sliders. Make your choices. See the consequences.
Starting Position — UK Public Finances, November 2025
£150bn
Annual borrowing (2024–25) — highest since pandemic
~95% GDP
Public debt-to-GDP — must fall by 2029–30 under fiscal rules
1.5%
OBR average GDP growth forecast (five-year) — downgraded again
3.5%
Inflation (2025) — well above 2% target, driving spending pressure
Labour Manifesto Constraints you must respect:
No increase in Income Tax rates, employee National Insurance, or VAT · PSNFL must be falling as % of GDP by 2029–30 · Current spending to be covered by tax receipts · Infrastructure investment commitments maintained
Your Budget Decisions
💰 Revenue Measures
Income Tax Threshold Freeze
Current: Thresholds already frozen until 2028 (£12,570 personal allowance, £50,270 higher rate)
Extend the freeze further — or end it early and raise thresholds above inflation to ease the cost-of-living burden.
End freeze earlyExtend 4 more yrsNo change
Salary Sacrifice Pension NIC Relief
Current: Unlimited NI relief on salary sacrifice pension contributions — costs ~£7bn/yr to Treasury
Cap NI relief on pension salary sacrifice — raising revenue but reducing incentives for private retirement saving.
Keep generousCap tightlyNo change
Wealth & Property Taxes
Current: No mansion tax; dividend/savings tax rate at 8.75%/33.75%; CGT at 18%/24%
Introduce a high-value property surcharge ("mansion tax") and raise rates on investment income — or keep wealth taxes light to avoid capital flight.
Light touchAggressiveNo change
Gambling & Sin Taxes
Current: Remote gaming duty at 21%; general betting duty at 15%
Raise duties on remote gambling and online betting — politically popular but limited revenue yield.
Hold ratesSharp risesNo change
Corporation Tax Rate
Current: £90bn annual yield at 25% main rate — roadmap pledged stability to 2030
Adjust the rate: cut to boost investment and signal pro-business credentials, or raise to close the fiscal gap faster.
Cut to 20%Raise to 30%25% (no change)
✂️ Spending Choices
Welfare & Benefits
Current: £230bn+ welfare spend; two-child limit costs £3bn/yr to remove; welfare U-turns from summer already budgeted
Abolish the two-child benefit cap and restore winter fuel payments — or hold the line on eligibility to protect fiscal headroom.
Hold/tightenExpand & restoreNo change
NHS & Public Services
Current: £168bn NHS England budget; waiting lists remain a core political pressure point
Boost NHS funding to cut waiting lists and deliver on your top manifesto pledge — or demand efficiencies to keep spending flat.
Find efficienciesMajor boostNo change
Defence Spending
Current: ~2.3% GDP on defence; PM has committed to reaching 2.5% by 2027, funded by cutting overseas aid
Accelerate the path to 2.5% GDP — signalling strength to NATO allies — or slow the ramp-up to ease near-term fiscal pressure.
Slow rampAccelerate fastNo change
Departmental Day-to-Day Spending
Current: Real-terms departmental spending flat or falling in many areas outside NHS/defence
Inject new money into schools, policing, local government — or enforce spending restraint to demonstrate fiscal discipline to markets.
RestraintSignificant boostNo change
📈 Growth & Investment
Infrastructure & Housebuilding
Current: Planning reforms underway; housing target 1.5m homes by 2030; OBR estimates reforms add 0.2% to GDP
Accelerate capital investment and housebuilding — borrowing more now for long-run supply-side gains — or scale back to limit near-term borrowing.
Scale backAccelerateNo change
Business Incentives & Skills
Current: £3bn skills budget; Employers NIC raised to 15% from Apr 2025 putting pressure on hiring
Offset the employer NIC impact with enhanced investment allowances and skills funding — or accept the cost and direct money elsewhere.
Scale backEnhanceNo change
Your Budget Results
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Annual Fiscal Impact
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Fiscal Rule Status
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Political Capital
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GDP Growth Impact
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Detailed Analysis
Manifesto Compliance Check
Economic & Political Outlook
What did Reeves actually do? The real Autumn Budget 2025 (26 Nov) extended the income tax threshold freeze by 3 years to 2031, capped salary sacrifice pension NIC relief at £2,000/yr (from 2029), introduced a mansion tax surcharge of £2,500–£7,500 on homes worth £2m+ (from 2028), raised gambling duties sharply (remote gaming duty to 40%), kept corporation tax at 25%, abolished the two-child benefit cap, gave the NHS a significant cash injection, and accelerated defence spending toward 2.5% GDP. The result: taxes rose to an all-time high of 38% of GDP, fiscal headroom increased to £22bn, and the OBR forecast sluggish growth of 1.5% per year over the parliament. How close did your choices come?